CFRA Keeps ‘Sell’ Rating on Rivian

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson raised on February 20, 2025, Rivian’s price target to $10 (from $8.00), while maintaining a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock.

“We raise our 12-month target by $2 to $10, comparable to the EV peer average.

We increase our 2025 adjusted EPS estimate to -$2.75 from -$3.30 and introduce 2026 at -$1.50.

RIVN posted Q4 adjusted EPS of -$0.46 vs. -$1.27, ahead of the -$0.64 consensus.

The beat was driven by stronger-than-expected sales, as revenue rose 32% to $1.73B ($300M above consensus).

RIVN introduced full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance of -$1.7B to -$1.9B, below the current consensus of -$1.69B.

Vehicle sales guidance of 46,000-51,000 units implies a Y/Y decline from the 51,579 units delivered in 2024.

Interestingly, RIVN’s financials implied a 28.0% gross margin on the $214M of Software & Services revenue generated in Q4, allowing it to generate a 9.8% gross margin for the quarter.

We reiterate our Sell rating in light of RIVN’s 35% jump since its Q3 earnings release, the weaker-than-expected 2025 guidance, and risks related to a potential clawback of the $6.6B Energy Department loan approved late in the Biden administration.”

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