Cantor Downgrades Rivian From ‘Overweight’ to ‘Neutral’
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard downgraded on February 21, 2025, Rivian’s rating from ‘Overweight’ to ‘Neutral,’ while lifting the price target from $13 to $15.
“Valuation
We Downgrade Rivian to Neutral and increase our PT to $15 (from prior $13).
We are lowering our FY25 delivery estimate to 51,000 (from prior 59,402 vehicles), to reflect company guidance. We are increasing our FY25 revenue estimates to ~$5,594M (from prior $5,119.3M), as we now incorporate revenue from the Software and Services segment, and assume a higher blended ASP (driven by fewer EDV deliveries).
Separately, we are lowering FY26 deliveries to 76,500 (vs. prior 110,000), resulting in lower FY26 revenue of ~$6,765M (vs. prior ~$8,497M).
We are also lowering our FY25/FY26 OpEx estimate to $3,321M/$3,379M, respectively, from prior $3,871M/$4,479M respectively.
We arrive at our $15 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.
Key risks include
- the implementation of new tariffs;
- removal of EV tax credit;
- continued supply-chain disruptions;
- manufacturing constraints;
- highly competitive market;
- and slower-than-expected customer adoption.”
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