KeyBanc Reiterates Overweight on NVIDIA, $190 PT

KeyBanc analyst John Vihn reiterated on May 21, 2025 its ‘Overweight’ rating on Nvidia, with a $190 price target.

“NVDA: Expect Modest Upside Given China Al Chip Ban and Continued GB200 Constraints

We expect NVDA to report more modest upside to F1Q (April) results and F2Q (July) guidance given headwinds associated with the Al China chip ban and continued supply constraints associated with GB200 NVL72.

However, we do believe that NVDA plans to ramp another China-compliant GPU that does not use HBM, which should partially offset the impact of this ban.

While NVDA is still targeting 30K GB200 racks for the year, we are increasingly worried about the ability to achieve this shipment target.

Accordingly, we’re fine-tuning our NT estimates, which previously had already reflected the impact of the Al China ban, and are trimming our F2H26 estimates to reflect continued supply constraints related to GB200 production.

Key Investment Points

More meaningful NT upside impacted by China Al chip ban; however, plans for an HBM-less compliant chip are expected to partially offset.

With NVDA plans to write off $5.5B in charges, this would represent~$14B in revenues and 1.1M H20 GPUs, which are expected to be greater headwinds in F2Q/F3Q.

We do believe this will be partially offset by a new China-compliant Al GPU that NVDA is developing that is non-HBM based (uses GDDR7 instead) and based on RTX6000, which is a workstation GPU.

At ~$8K in ASP, we believe NVDA plans to ship ~1M units, representing ~$88 in revs and partially offsetting $148 in previously anticipated H20 revenues later this year.

GB200 NVL72 manufacturing yields improved but remain a significant NT constraint.

We believe EMS yields have improved on GB200 NVL72 to ~80% from ~70% prior, but that ODMs continue to struggle with the production of these racks, and estimate shipments in F1Q were below 1K and F2Q is expected to be 3K-4K, well below original build plans.

We believe the supply chain is still targeting production of 30K GB200/GB300 racks for FY26, but given the ongoing manufacturing struggles, we are increasingly concerned about whether this target is achievable.

Fine-tuning F1Q/F2Q and trimming FY26/FY27

We’re raising our F1Q revenue estimate slightly, from $43.1B to $44.2B, vs. consensus of $43.2B.

Conversely, we’re trimming F2QE to $45.28 from $45.78. vs. consensus of $46.38, reflecting slightly greater headwinds from the China Al chip ban.

We’re trimming FY26/FY27, reflecting increasing concerns related to supply constraints related to the production of GB200/300 and the ability to achieve 30K racks this year.”

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