Macquarie Upgrades XPeng’s PT and Rating Amid Q1 Results

Macquarie raised on May 22, 2025, the price target on XPeng’s U.S.-listed shares to $21.90.

“Key Points

• XPeng beat 1Q25 MQe/Bloomberg gross profit by 6%/9% as GPM rose 1.1ppts QoQ to 15.6% on better vehicle margins and higher aftermarket profits.
• Midpoint of 2Q guide of 105k units above Bloomberg/MQe 103k. XPeng guided to volume acceleration into 3Q with new launches (G7, new P7).
• Upgrade to Outperform; raise TPs 7%-9% as we increase our FY25E sales estimates to Rmb 81bn on unchanged 2.0x P/S.

XPeng reported 1Q25 results and held a briefing after close:

What we liked: Net loss improved from unexpected other income of Rmb544m due to government subsidies and FX gains of Rmb130m, and better vehicle GPM. Highlighted monthly run-rate for May/June (35k) based on the midpoint of guidance looks lofty vs. April deliveries (35k) despite model refresh (G6/G9) and new launches (M03 Max).

Guidance: Volume of 102–108k units in 2Q (up 23%-28% YoY); midpoint of 105k is above Bloomberg/MQe of 103k. 2Q revenue guide for Rmb17.5–18.7bn is also above Bloomberg/MQe of Rmb17.1/17.0bn.

Management maintained its 2x volume growth target for 2025, implying >380k units and looks for net profit breakeven by 4Q25 on high-teen GPM.

It also maintained its FY25 R&D guide of Rmb8.5bn.

MQ View: XPeng management continues to demonstrate a methodical domestic EV market. Strong launches of the M03 MAX and G7 will drive momentum and support a re-rating.

We are also seeing stability in management turnover given recent vehicle margin expansion.

Earnings Changes:

We raise our volume forecasts by 6% in FY25E to 473k units to account for strong 1Q/2Q sales trends, this drives FY25E sales up 6% to Rmb 81bn and +8% loss estimates.

Valuation:

We raise our TP 7%/9% to: HK$93/US$24, from HK$87/US$22. We continue to apply a 2.0x FY25E P/S multiple.

Catalysts:

Blockbuster new models, faster-than-expected breakeven, rapid overseas expansion, commercialization of humanoid/eVTOL.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.