Piper Sandler Reiterates Overweight on NVIDIA, $150 PT

Piper Sandler analyst Harsh V. Kumar preserved on May 27, 2025 its ‘Overweight’ rating on Nvidia, with a $150 price target.

“Previewing Q1 Earnings, Looking for Tea Leaves for a Strong Back Half of the Year

All in all, we think that NVDA is poised to be flat to down into the print this week.

We think that April quarter is poised for a miss in revenues largely from macro uncertainty and from the H20 ban.

The new re-spun China chip will likely be commercialized in the late part of the July quarter which could also impact July’s guide.

We note that for the most part the factors resulting in a miss are outside the company’s control.

Despite this, we see a strong back half of the year given HPC capex coming on strong coupled with macro forces improving driven by sovereign investments following the announcements of several large deals over recent weeks.

We advise investors to weather the uncertainty and stay long the stock as this is likely largely the last wave of negative news for NVDA this year. Reiterate OW rating.

Taking Our Numbers Up Into the Print

We are adjusting our model and taking our numbers up for the April quarter as well as for FY28.

The primary reason for our change is that,

1) we removed too much of China sales from the H20 ban and

2) our checks suggest that the U.S. HPC customer base stayed relatively committed to Al as did the neoclouds.

In addition, despite the macro uncertainty, enterprise stayed more committed than we had expected.

As a result of this, we are also raising our growth rate for the second half which we think could be very good for Nvidia given the commitments we have seen from sovereign that could start to bear fruit toward the end of FY2H26.

That said, we do expect a miss relative to the guidance for the April quarter.

We believe that the ban on the H20 chip could account for as much as $700 million to the April quarter relative to the $43 billion guide pre-ban.

This, coupled with some level of relative weakness in the enterprise is accounting for our roughly $1 billion miss.

We note that greater than half of that billion dollar miss is from the China ban of the H20.

Peak Uncertainty in April-2H Looks Attractive

2HFY26 looks particularly attractive as does FY2027, in our view.

We see April as likely the peak for uncertainty regarding macro and enterprise commitments.

Despite the uncertainty, we found that U.S. HPC capex stayed relatively intact and in most cases actually was up for the year.

Enterprise, we suspect, will also start spending again as macro appears to have steadied.

In addition, the FY2H26 should be the start of an impressive timeframe for Nvidia with promised upticks in U.S. HPX capex, Blackwell’s ramp, GB300 launch, and start of several large sovereign projects.

Thoughts on the April Quarter

We now feel that the April quarter will be a miss of ~$1 billion with more than half of it related to China H20 ban and the remainder associated with enterprise uncertainty.

We note that hyperscalers have stayed relatively committed through this period of extreme uncertainty.

We are now forecasting revenues of $41.8B on EPS of $0.71. This compares to company guide to $43 billion.

RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF PT & RECOMMENDATION

• Industry Cyclicality
• Inventory Management
• Consumer Exposure, and
• Integration Risk”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.