Citi Reaffirms Li Auto’s $34.30 Price Target

Citi analyst Jeff Chung reiterated on May 29, 2025, a ‘Neutral’ rating and $34.30 price target on Li Auto.

“2Q25E guidance

(1) Deliveries: mgmt. guides 2Q25E delivery target of 123k-128k units, up 13.3%/17.9% YoY;

(2) Revenue: mgmt. guides 2Q25E revenue target of Rmb32.5bn-33.8bn, up 2.5%-6.7% YoY;

(3) Margin: mgmt. guides 2Q25E vehicle margin at around 19% (vs 19.8% as of 1Q25) due to the deliveries between old and new models in 2Q.

New models

The company will launch i8 in July-25 (currently under road test across country) and i6 on Sept-25.

The company launched Li MEGA Home in Apr-25, which contributed to 90% of Li MEGA orders since launch with robust order backlog.

Mgmt. will increase production capacity to achieve 2.5-3k units monthly delivery target of Li MEGA by July-25.

Mgmt. also highlights model upgrades of Li L-series/Li MEGA on AD Max (upgrade from Nvidia Orin X to Thor) and AD Pro (upgrade from Horizon Robotics J5 to J6M) with Hesai’s ATL lidar.

Super charging network

The company operates 2,350 supercharging stations with 12.8k charging stalls as of 1Q25 and plays to deploy 2,500+ stations by June-25 and aim for 4,000 stations by end of 25E.

ADAS

Mgmt. highlighted in-house developed VLA Driver, with plan to launch together with Li i8 in July-25 and roll out to all AD Max Li-series through OTA updates.

Halo OS was published in Apr-25, an open-source smart vehicle operating system with the goal to empower industry partners.

Sales network

Mgmt. will continue to expand network in major auto parts and shopping malls while penetrating in lower cities.

The company has established 500 retail stores in 151 cities with 502 service centers in 223 cities as of 1Q25.

Questions and Answers

Q: How to achieve 25E growth target (i.e., double Rmb200k+ NEV market growth)?

Mgmt. notes the sales of upgraded L-series has met expectation with current weekly sales over 10k units and achieved 14.7% market share at Rmb200k+ segment.

Mgmt. is confident to achieve 50k+ monthly sales for new L-series soon.”

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