CFRA Upgrades XPeng’s Price Target and Rating

CFRA analyst Aaron Ho upgraded on June 2, 2025, XPeng’s rating from ‘Strong Sell’ to ‘Hold’ with a price target of $20.00 (from $8.00).

“Our target price of USD20 (up from USD8) implies a 2025 P/S of 1.5x, a discount to global electric vehicle peers’ P/S average of 3.3x, justified in our view by its second-tier market position.

We project revenue to rise 117%/24% to CNY88.8B/CNY110.1B in 2025/2026, assuming (i) 180%/30% growth in car deliveries, supported by new models and facelifts, as well as penetration into new markets, (ii) 18%/5% decline in average selling price due to higher sales mix of cheaper models and price reductions amid intensified competition, and (iii) 30% growth p.a. for services and others segment.

Despite rising sales & marketing expenses and elevated R&D spending, we expect operating losses to narrow in 2025, supported by improved operating leverage, ongoing cost reduction initiatives, and supply chain optimizations.

We also anticipate XPeng to achieve a modest operating profit in 2026.

We trim our loss per ADS estimate for 2025 to CNY1.86 (from CNY2.79) and lift earnings per ADS for 2026 to CNY1.74 (from CNY1.06).”

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