Macquarie Cuts Nio’s Price Target to $3.90
Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao slashed on June 3, 2025, the price target on Nio to $3.90 (from $4.70) while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating.
“1Q results missed Bloomberg consensus/MQe on all key metrics as concerns over unabated cash burn remain. 2Q guide was in line.
The NIO brand faces more BEV competition, while Onvo has yet to generate sustainable volumes.We look for the new L90/L80 in 3Q/4Q.
Maintain Neutral; cut HK/US TPs by 14%/17% as we reduce our valuation multiples.
NIO reported 1Q25 results and held an earnings call post-HK market close.
What we liked
NIO remains committed to its 4Q25 breakeven target via a major organisational restructuring announced over the past few months while looking to tighten R&D spending.
What we didn’t like
1) Cash balance fell sharply to Rmb26bn in 1Q25, from Rmb42bn in 4Q24, as NIO saw negative share equity as of 31 March prior to the recent equity raise;
2) 7.6% GPM was well below 10.6% consensus and 12.3% MQe on negative scale effects; and
3) adjusted net loss of Rmb6.3bn (near peak quarterly loss) was well below -Rmb5.2bn consensus and -3.4bn MQe on lower gross profit and higher opex.
2Q guidance: 72k-75k units of car (+26-31% YoY), above 70k consensus.
2Q25 revenue guide Rmb19.5-20.1bn, in line with consensus 19.6bn.
Implied revenue/car at Rmb268-271k, down from Rmb286k in 1Q; this is likely due to higher Onvo mix.
By 4Q25, management targets 50k/month volume and profit breakeven.”
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