Mizuho Trims Nio’s Price Target From $4.00 to $3.50

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered on June 3, 2025, the price target on Nio to $3.50 (from $4.00), while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating.

“Nio reported MarQ rev/EPS of RMB 12.0B/RMB (3.29) (cons. RMB 12.3B/RMB (2.54)) and guided JulQ to RMB 19.8B (cons. RMB 19.6B) and deliveries to 73.5k units (cons. of 69.9k), up ~75% q/q.

Key highlights:

1) JunQ deliveries guide stronger with 2025E model year refreshes and Onvo/Firefly continuing to ramp,

2) NIO estimates exiting 2025E at ~50k deliveries/month potentially challenging with strong China competition as deliveries in Apr/May at ~23k and June guided to 26.5k, and

3) GM expected to improve with new model launches as NIO sees breakeven by 4Q25E, as NIO is targeting 15% vehicle margins in 2025 and 25% longer term.

Maintain Neutral, adjust estimates/lowering PT to $3.50 from $4.

We see NIO fairly valued at 0.6x C26E P/S, a slight discount to CN peers avg of 0.8x as China competition remains strong.”

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