Baird Downgrades Tesla’s Rating to ‘Neutral’
Baird downgraded on June 9, 2025, Tesla’s rating to ‘Neutral’.
“Downgrading to Neutral. TSLA’s strong performance following a fundamentally poor quarter (up 24%, S&P 500 up 13%) has been partly a product of anticipation for the June launch of both a more affordable vehicle and robotaxi service.
We believe Musk’s comments regarding the robotaxi ramp rate are a bit too optimistic, and we believe this excitement has been priced into shares.
We also note that Musk’s ties to President Trump have added considerable uncertainty.
We see TSLA as a core holding longterm, but are stepping to the sidelines for now.
Lowering 2026 delivery estimates — cautious on “Model 2″ volumes
We are lowering our 2026E volumes to reflect the removal of the EV tax credit. Our updated estimates are as follows:
- Q225: Our 377.0K vs consensus 404.8K.
- 2025: Our 1.72M vs consensus 1.70M.
- 2026: Our 2.19M vs consensus 2.06M.
We continue to view as a core holding long-term
Several questions remain in the near term, such as the magnitude of the robotaxi launch, ramp-up of units following the initial launch, potential impacts on TSLA’s brand related to Musk’s political activities, and the timeline for the ramp of Optimus.
These are all contributors to our move to the sidelines, however, we continue to see TSLA as a core holding longer-term as we see an outsized opportunity related to both robotaxi and robotics.”
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