Baird Tesla · TSLA

Baird Downgrades Tesla’s Rating to ‘Neutral’

1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Neutral
Downgraded
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What the analyst said

Baird downgraded on June 9, 2025, Tesla’s rating to ‘Neutral’.


“Downgrading to Neutral. TSLA’s strong performance following a fundamentally poor quarter (up 24%, S&P 500 up 13%) has been partly a product of anticipation for the June launch of both a more affordable vehicle and robotaxi service.

We believe Musk’s comments regarding the robotaxi ramp rate are a bit too optimistic, and we believe this excitement has been priced into shares.

We also note that Musk’s ties to President Trump have added considerable uncertainty.

We see TSLA as a core holding longterm, but are stepping to the sidelines for now.


Lowering 2026 delivery estimates — cautious on “Model 2″ volumes

We are lowering our 2026E volumes to reflect the removal of the EV tax credit. Our updated estimates are as follows:

  • Q225: Our 377.0K vs consensus 404.8K.
  • 2025: Our 1.72M vs consensus 1.70M.
  • 2026: Our 2.19M vs consensus 2.06M.

We continue to view as a core holding long-term

Several questions remain in the near term, such as the magnitude of the robotaxi launch, ramp-up of units following the initial launch, potential impacts on TSLA’s brand related to Musk’s political activities, and the timeline for the ramp of Optimus.

These are all contributors to our move to the sidelines, however, we continue to see TSLA as a core holding longer-term as we see an outsized opportunity related to both robotaxi and robotics.”

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Track record

Firm track recordBaird: 90% of its 31 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#1 of 26 firms); on Tesla, 5 of 6. Accuracy ranking →

Baird on Tesla

Baird price targets on Tesla

8 calls from June 9, 2025 to January 29, 2026. The target went from $320 to $548 (+71%). The rating moved from Hold to Buy.

Baird targetTSLA share price
  1. January 29, 2026Kept the $548 targetBuy$548
  2. December 30, 2025Kept the $548 targetBuy$548
  3. October 23, 2025Kept the $548 targetBuy$548
  4. September 19, 2025Upgraded to Buy, target raised from $320 (+71%)Buy$548
  5. September 8, 2025Kept the $320 targetHold$320
  6. July 24, 2025Kept the $320 targetHold$320
  7. June 25, 2025Set a $320 targetHold$320
  8. June 9, 2025 This noteEarliest call shownHoldNo target
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Other analysts on Tesla

CantorBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 26 $485maintained BarclaysBuy Upgraded, raised price target +22% Oct 26 $450from $370 StoneXBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 22 $475maintained BNP ParibasHold Upgraded Oct 22 Morgan StanleyHold Raised price target +2%, kept rating Oct 22 $410from $400
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.