Bernstein Rates BYD as ‘Market Perform’
Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee set on June 9, 2025, a ‘Market Perform’ rating on BYD.
“Welcome to the 2025 edition of Bernstein’s Electric Revolution series — our annual cross sector look at the transformation of the EV landscape.
This year’s theme is divergence: while China’s EV market pushes ahead with scale and innovation, the West is slowing, facing demand headwinds, policy uncertainty, and rising costs.
The result? A bifurcated global EV industry, with distinct implications for OEMs, suppliers, energy players, and investors.
In this note we look at China’s journey to becoming a global leader in EV adoption, offering insights for other regions to boost their own efforts.China has emerged as a global leader in EVs, representing over 60% of global EV sales and achieving sales penetration exceeding 50% in China.
In addition to its success in the domestic market, Chinese EVs are increasingly gaining traction in international markets.
This path to leadership was not always clear, however.
EV adoption in China only took off in 2020, driven by the introduction of affordable models with enhanced range and charging capabilities, and the rise of PHEVs.
We continue to hold a bullish view on the Chinese EV sector. We forecast EV wholesale (including exports) to grow 25% and reach c.15mn units in 2025.
For the domestic market, we forecast EV sales to reach c.13mn in 2025E, reaching 60% EV sales penetration in 2025, up from 46% in 2024.
Longer term, by 2030, we forecast China’s EV penetration will reach c.90%.
We expect Chinese brands will continue to take share in the domestic market.
Chinese EVs offer strong value-for-money and are more technologically-advanced when compared to EV offerings from international brands.
The long term secular growth outlook for EVs remains intact and even though EV transition has come to the mass adoption phase in China, we forecast EV sales growth will be c.25% for 2025 and drive EV penetration to 60%.
Nearer term, we also expect PHEV growth to outpace the market.
We expect competition within the domestic market to remain intense and put pressure on pricing and profitability.
Meanwhile, we believe overseas markets will present a strategic growth opportunity.
For our EV names, we rate BYD, Xiaomi, and Li Auto Outperform, and XPeng and NIO Market-Perform.
Within our traditional Chinese OEMs coverage, we rate Geely Outperform and Great Wall, GAC, and SAIC Market-Perform.”
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