Morgan Stanley Reiterates $5.90 Price Target on Nio

Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao reiterated on July 14, 2025, an ‘Overweight’ rating and $5.90 price target on Nio.

“With all the pessimism in the price, we think the stock is like a call option: NIOH’s share price rose 11% today (vs. HSI + 0.3%) on the back of solid preorder intake for Onvo L90, which reached 30-35k units per our latest channel checks today.

While it remains below Onvo L60’s 60k+ pre-sale orders back in 3Q24, the market’s volume expectations for L90 appear way lower, especially given L90’s higher price tag and L60’s unsatisfactory execution at its launch.

As mentioned in our note last week, we see Onvo L90 as a highly competitive model in sub-Rmb300k segment given its superior interior space and specs, and especially if the official price comes out lower than its pre-sale price.

Hence, we see L90 volume skewed to the upside, where exceeding monthly sales of 5k units seems like a low bar to beat, per our estimates.

Not yet a blue sky scenario…quality execution remains imperative:

Given NIO has been heavily shorted prior to the L90 launch, we gauge today’s share price rally is largely driven by short-covering/squeezing trades.

To turn incrementally constructive, investors will likely continue to monitor store traffic and pre-sale order intake over the next few weeks before its official delivery starts in August.

The bull case from here would also take improving L60 sales and resurgence in sales of NIO brands with more aggressive promotions.”

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