Guggenheim Downgrades Rivian from ‘Buy’ to ‘Neutral’
Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow lowered on July 14, 2025, Rivian’s rating from ‘Buy’ to ‘Neutral’, with a price target of $13 (down from $16).
“We are updating numbers post-RIVN 2Q deliveries and lowering our rating to NEUTRAL from BUY to reflect softer long-term R2/R3 assumptions driven by both softer R1 sales and negative US Electric Vehicle and Emissions policy changes.
While we remain confident in cost-reduction targets for the R2, something about which we have had ample debates with bears over the last year, we no longer have confidence in the required volumes and/or required ASPs to support our prior price target.
In short, softening R1 demand is a modest negative for R2/R3 volumes, and the loss of EV incentives is likely to negatively impact long-term ASP and/or volume potential as well.
Net/net, we now project 150K units in 2028 vs. 185K prior.
While there are potential positiv e offsets in the form of auto interest deduction and a potential EV market void left by competitors canceling EV plans, we do not believe either is large enough to offset the negative ramifications from lost consumer credits.
Finally, the loss of EV emissions credits lowers our EPS and FCF forecasts, and cumulatively lowers our DCF value by nearly $2/share.
Upcoming catalysts include 2Q results, the planned autonomy day (fall) and incremental R2 updates ahead of the 1H26 launch.
Longer term, it is possible that RIVN and other tech-focused EV manufacturers benefit as legacy OEMs cede the EV market to RIVN/others, but the headwinds presented by changing government incentives present near- and medium-term challenges that are difficult to ignore.
We downgrade to NEUTRAL and remove our prior $16 price target; we now see current fair value at ~$13/share.”
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