Mizuho Reduces Price Target on Rivian to $12

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered on August 6, 2025, the price target on Rivian to $12 (from $13) while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating.

“RIVN reported in-line JunQ revenue with deliveries ~10.7K units (dn 23% y/y) ahead of new launches in 2H25E.

Key highlights:

1. SepQ strongest Q ahead of end of IRA credit on 9/30;
2. Reiterated 2025E deliveries target at ~43K (down 17% y/y vs cons 42.9k) with new MY2026 R1 launches;
3. R2 SOP 1H26E as commissioning starting in SepQ, 50% lower BoM Cost vs R1, tool install ongoing;
4. R2 capacity at ~155k in Normal, IL with Georgia 200K longer term.

We estimate 2026E deliveries at 68k units, up 58% y/y (cons 75.3k, our prior ~67.7k, as we continue to see EV growth in the US challenged in 2025E.

Maintain Neutral, adjusting estimates and PT to $12 (prior $13).”

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