Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterates $15 PT on Rivian Amid Q2 Earnings

Cantor Fizgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated on August 6, 2025, the $15 price target on Rivian. The ‘Neutral’ rating remained unchanged.

“Rivian Q2: R2 Line On-Track, and an (early) Emphasis on Autonomy.

Delivery Outlook Unchanged but Adj. EBITDA Lowered – Cantor’s Take FY25 Delivery Guidance Unchanged, but Adj. EBITDA Revised Down.

On its 2Q call, management reaffirmed its FY25 vehicle delivery guidance of 40,000 – 46,000 vehicles, which includes EDV deliveries.

Recall that in FY24, Rivian delivered 51,579 vehicles and produced 49,476. Separately, the company is maintaining its FY25 Capex guidance of $1,800M – $1,900M.

However, the company is lowering its FY25 Adj. EBITDA to $(2,000M) – $(2,250M) vs. prior guide of $(1,700M)-$(1,900M).

R2 Line On-Track for 1H26

RIVN expects its R2 line to benefit from vertically integrated technologies developed for the company’s prior R1 line.

On its 2Q25 call, management reaffirmed that it is targeting Start of Production (SOP) for R2 in 1H26, and that its expects the R2 line to “be less than half the cost of revenues per unit,” relative to the R1 line.

Additionally, RIVN expects to commission the new R2 line in 3Q25 and to start validating the equipment and production processes.

Management is still targeting a starting price of ~$45,000 for the lowest trim, although we expect RIVN to first launch with a higher trim version.

Latest on the Joint Venture with Volkswagen, and Loan from the DOE

Recall that RIVN previously disclosed that the total deal size of its JV with Volkswagen (VOW-DE; NC) had increased to $5.8B (from $5B previously).

The ~$5.8B will be split into six components. In 2Q25, RIVN recognized ~$182M of revenue for the combined performance obligation of the joint venture, and management disclosed that on June 30th they received the $1B equity investment from VOW.

Management expects to receive up to $2.5B of incremental capital from VOW (expects $1B of equity in 2026), a $1B loan in October 2026, and ~$460M of equity (expected either on Jan 2028, or on first production of a joint vehicle.

Additionally, recall that RIVN previously announced that it had closed its loan agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Loan Programs Office (LPO) for up to $6.6B (includes $6B of principal and ~$600M of capitalized interest), for the build-out of the company’s newer Georgia facility.

Furthermore, we expect the majority of withdrawals to take place in 2026/2027.

A Bigger Focus on Autonomy, And an Update on its Charging Network

On its 2Q25 call, management continued to highlight its Rivian Autonomy Platform.

Rivian’s second generation platform will be designed around an AI-Centric approach.

The company recently launched hands-free, eyes-on driving for its second generation vehicles (for highway use cases), and we expect the company to make ongoing enhancements to its platform throughout 2026, as management is extremely passionate on autonomy.

Separately, Rivian’s Adventure (charging) Network now has >780 chargers across 123 sites in 37 states, according to management.

Key Financial Metrics

Top-Line In-Line

RIVN reported 2Q25 revenue of $1,303M, in-line with consensus of ~$1,275M (and vs. $1,158M in 2Q24), driven by 10,661 vehicle deliveries (and 5,979 vehicles produced).

Automotive revenue contributed $927M (vs. 1,074M in 2Q24), and RIVN reported $176M in revenue from AMZN, which represented ~14% of total sales.

Recall that historically, AMZN revenue has accounted for ~20% of total revenue.

The company also recognized $376M revenue from software and services, and recognized ~$182M from joint venture.

Gross Margin Miss

RIVN reported a 2Q25 gross profit of ($206M), and Gross Margin of (16%), below our estimate/consensus of (1%)/1%, respectively. For FY25, management is now targeting a break even GM, (vs. “a modest gross profit” profit previously).

Separately, RIVN reported a 2Q25 Adj. EBITDA loss of ($667M), below our estimate/Consensus of ($550.6M)/($506.1M), (and vs. a loss of ($857M) in 2Q24).

Bottom Line Miss

Rivian reported a 2Q25 Net loss of $(1,117M), below our estimate/consensus of $(863.7M)/$(827.4M), and vs. $(1,457M) in 2Q24.

Finally, the company reported a 2Q25 adj. EPS of ($0.80) vs. ($1.24) in 2Q24.

An Update on Liquidity

RIVN reported ~$7.508M in cash, equivalents, and ST investments for 2Q25 (vs. ~$7.2B in 1Q25).

RIVN’s total liquidity is ~$8,519M as of 2Q25 (vs. ~$8.5B in 1Q25) including the capacity under the company’s asset-based revolving credit facility.

Net cash generated from operating activities in 2Q25 was ~$64M, vs. ($754M) in 2Q24. Capex in 2Q25 was $462M(vs. $283M in 2Q24).

Additionally, recall that on 6/2, RIVN announced plans to raise $1.25B through a private offering of green notes due in 2031.

The notes will be backed by Rivian’s assets and further secured by Rivian’s New Horizon assets, once its DOE loan is funded.

Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take

We continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a commercial partnership with Amazon, a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen, and a differentiated product offering (R1, EDVs, & R2).

We continue to view Rivian’s R2 line (1H26) as a meaningful catalyst, and one that should result in higher customer demand, driven by the more competitive price point.

However, while management disclosed that it expects Q3 deliveries to be its highest for the year, we remain discouraged by the company’s FY25 delivery guidance of 40,000 – 46,000 vehicles, which is lower than FY24 deliveries, and by the disappointing Gross Margin, which came way below expectations.

Overall, we remain Neutral in the near term, driven by lower delivery expectations, worsening macro conditions, tariff uncertainty, the removal of the $7,500 EV Tax Credit, and uncertainty regarding the company’s autonomy and charging segments (which have yet to be quantified by management).

RIVN is targeting an Autonomy/AI investor day in Q4, and we are excited by the emphasis on autonomy, which management is very passionate about.

Valuation

Our Neutral Rating and our $15 PT on RIVN are Unchanged

In our model, we lower our FY25 gross margin to (1.4%) from prior 5%, which results in a lower Adj. EBITDA of ~($2.12B) (vs. prior ($1.77B)) to reflect updated company guidance.

Also, we now expect ~$160M of revenue regulatory credits in FY25 (vs. prior ~$300M) to reflect management’s comments.

Separately, we are also lowering our FY26 vehicle delivery estimate to 58,800 (vs. prior 76,500) as we want to remain conservative.

This results in a reduction to our FY26 revenue estimate to ~5.84B (from $7.09B prior). We arrive at our $15 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.

Key risks include:

• the implementation of new tariffs,
• removal of EV tax credit,
• continued supply-chain disruptions,
• manufacturing constraints,
• ahighly competitive market,
• and slower customer adoption.”

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