JPMorgan Reiterates NVIDIA at Overweight, $215 Price Target

Lead Times Still Stretched; Rack Shipments Seen Gaining Momentum in F2H26; H20 Green-Lighted But Awaiting Orders; Solid Networking Momentum; Reiterate Overweight.

We hosted an investor group meeting with Toshiya Hari, VP of IR and Strategic Finance at NVIDIA, with a focus on its Data Center business. Below are the key takeaways from the meeting.

Demand continues to outweigh supply, keeping lead times stretched but stable; Rubin on track for C2H26 ramp. Even with Blackwell Ultra (BWU) ramping sharply in FQ2 (~50% of Blackwell mix), management noted that lead times have remained fairly consistent (measuring “in quarters, not months”), indicative of demand still outstripping supply more than two years into this AI spending cycle.

Looking beyond CY25, NVDA reiterated expectations of growth in CY26 and confirmed that its upcoming Vera Rubin platform has not experienced any delays and is on track for a C2H26 launch, with all 6 chips that make up the platform having already taped out at TSMC.

FQ2 inventory uptick was in support of ongoing BWU ramp, and not indicative of GB200 inventory build. When queried on balance sheet inventory growth in FQ2 (+33% Q/Q), management indicated that this was undertaken deliberately in preparation for supporting a further ramp in BWU in FQ3.

In fact, the vast majority of the finished goods on NVDA’s B/S at the end of FQ2 (~$8.7B, up from ~$3.5B in FQ1) has already shipped this quarter.

Strong networking attach rates seen driving sustained growth over the long term. With Networking having seen two consecutive quarters of unusually strong Q/Q growth (+64%/+46% in FQ1/FQ2), NVDA cautioned that this should not be extrapolated into FQ3, and instead pointed to Networking revenue growth aligning more closely with Compute growth over the longer term.

Management indicated the attach rate for NVDA networking content relative to its GPUs remains strong (in the high-70s%/80% range), but emphasized that the company does not “bundle” networking with compute.

Green light from US government for H20 exports to China, but no orders yet from Chinese customers. NVDA noted it has received license approval from the US government for the export of H20 GPUs to Chinese customers, and that customer interest has been strong, but that no purchase orders have yet been received.

Depending on the timing of POs, NVDA has sufficient inventory on hand to support $2-5B of H20 revenue in FQ3 (implying a $56-59B soft guide for FQ3).

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