Goldman Sachs Raises XPeng’s PT to $25
Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou raised on November 19, 2025, the price target on XPeng to $25 (from $24) while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.
“XPeng ADR/H share price retreated 10%/10% post an in-line 3Q25 result, but below-expectation 4Q25E revenue guidance mainly from slowing volume growth (from 149% yoy in 3Q25 to 41% in 4Q25E) and continued competition in the market (First Take).
Although near-term sales momentum may be moderate with only few new model launches, looking into 1Q26E, we see XPeng having better seasonality vs. peers as the company will launch the EREV version of 3 models (G6/G7/P7+), which could potentially see 3X higher order vs. the BEV versions based on management comment for X9 EREV pre-order data.
For 2026E full year, we expect a strong new model pipeline and sustainable revenue contribution from VW to drive 40% revenue growth, improving gross margin from scale economics and continued cost-down, continued R&D investment and improving account payabledays, leading to GAAP net income of Rmb2.2bn (first full-year break-even).
Estimate changes
Post 3Q25 result, we lower our 2025E-27E earnings estimates from Rmb-0.4bn/3.8bn/5.5bn to Rmb-0.8bn/2.8bn/3.3bn mainly on higher R&D expenses into new businesses; on the other hand, changes in working capital increases to Rmb7.7bn/2.9bn/4.5bn from Rmb6.6bn/0.6bn/3.9bn on shorter account payable days.
After rolling forward DCF-valuation by 1 year, our 12-month target prices change to US$25/HK$96 (from US$24/HK$94 previously), implying +11%/+12% upside.
Maintain Buy rating.”
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