What the analyst said
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Stacy A. Rasgon reiterated on December 15, 2025, an ‘Outperform ‘rating and $275 price target on Nvidia.
“Takeaways from an investor meeting with IR: NVIDIA is still awaiting licenses to ship H200 products into China from the U.S. government (at this point all they have is Trump’s tweet/truth…).
From there they will assess their demand requests and then begin manufacturing.
The company does have some H200 related inventory, but not all components, and are still working with suppliers and manufacturers to get an idea of the production timeline as they prepare to serve this market.
They also have not yet received any codification or official paperwork around the 25% governmental revenue share (hence they are unsure on how this will be accounted at this point).
NVIDIA believes that they are ~2 years ahead of Google’s TPU program, though they acknowledge the strides that Google has made in their >10 year journey.
As the AI landscape continues to move rapidly (e.g. from CNN to transformer models to whatever comes next), they believe it will be difficult for Google to convince CSPs to deploy TPUs as they are optimized for specific model structures (we shall see, clearly there is some deployment i.e. Anthropic at least).
But they believe NVIDIA’s programmable platform solutions remain the best hardware for cloud AI infrastructure.”
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Where the price stands
NVDA trades at $174. The 28 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $200 to $515, with a median of $300. This $275 target is 8% below the median.
Since the note NVDA has moved −1% (from $175). 12-month window: day 331 of 365, closes on December 15, 2026.
Track record
This callOpen: NVDA has not reached $275 yet. This 12-month target is scored on November 20, 2026. Same target as this firm’s November 20, 2025 note, so it is scored there.
Firm track recordBernstein: 80% of its 25 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#10 of 26 firms); on NVIDIA, 4 of 4. Accuracy ranking →
Bernstein on NVIDIA
Bernstein price targets on NVIDIA
8 calls from September 19, 2025 to February 26, 2026. The target went from $225 to $300 (+33%). The rating stayed Buy.
- February 26, 2026Target raised from $275 (+9%)Buy$300
- December 29, 2025Kept the $275 targetBuy$275
- December 19, 2025Kept the $275 targetBuy$275
- December 15, 2025 This noteKept the $275 targetBuy$275
- November 26, 2025Kept the $275 targetBuy$275
- November 20, 2025Target raised from $225 (+22%)Buy$275
- September 23, 2025Kept the $225 targetBuy$225
- September 19, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$225
Other analysts on NVIDIA
UBSBuy
Kept rating and price targetReiterated · Nov 12
$300maintained
CitiBuy
Cut price target −21%, kept ratingCut target · Nov 12
$225from $285−21%
OppenheimerHold
Downgraded · Nov 12
MizuhoBuy
Kept rating and price targetReiterated · Nov 11
$250maintained
StifelBuy
Cut price target −35%, kept ratingCut target · Nov 11
$205from $315−35%