Bernstein Reiterates $275 Price Target on Nvidia

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Stacy A. Rasgon reiterated on December 19, 2025, an ‘Outperform ‘rating and $275 price target on Nvidia.

“Just How Cheap Is It?

Nvidia’s performance has been somewhat challenged as of late…

While putting up decent overall performance (with the shares up ~30% YTD), the stock has stagnated since July, and has substantially underperformed the SOX index this year (with the broader semi space up 38% YTD) even as earnings estimates have continued to march ever higher.

Consequently, the shares have seen substantial multiple compression with Nvidia’s P/FE falling by 27% through the year, currently sitting just a hair under 25x.

But how cheap is it? 25x P/FE may not seem particularly cheap for your ordinary stock.

But this is NVIDIA.

For this company, 25x forward EPS would suggest the shares are trading in the 11th percentile of valuation over the last 10 years (i.e., pretty cheap on an absolute basis) (Exhibit 4).

And relative to the broader semiconductor industry the situation is much more stark. Relative to the SOX NVDA currently trades at a ~13% discount, in the FIRST percentile; indeed, over the last 10 years there have only been THIRTEEN DAYS where NVDA’s stock traded cheaper relative to the SOX than it is trading now.

While we understand some of the AI angst that has affected the sector lately, we believe Nvidia is set up well into the new year.

The stock has been hit recently (in particular by worries over capex sustainability and the GPU/TPU debate).

However, capex intentions look fine at this point, and the GPU narrative may be recovering some of its mojo relative to ASICs.

Rubin is on its way, with CES and GTC potentially providing further catalysts.

H200 approval from the Trump administration may provide some China upside at some point.

And overall numbers appear likely low in the context of the company’s $500B+ Blackwell/Rubin guidance.

Coupled with what appears to be extremely attractive valuation we believe the set-up is looking good into the new year; we would be buyers here.”

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