Wolfe Downgrades Rivian to Underperform
Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded on January 12, 2026, Rivian from ‘Peerperform’ to ‘Underperform’ with a price target of $16.
“RIVN to UP: Risk/Reward challenging at current levels.
While the near-term and long-term fundamental setup for RIVN have deteriorated, enthusiasm around RIVN’s Autonomy platform has driven a sharp rise in the shares.
But as look to 2026, Street ests appear too high (we est EBITDA loss of $2.1 bn vs Cons of -$1.76 bn). FCF burn is likely to step-up towards ~$4+ bn, with higher Capex / Opex and WC headwinds.
And we see potential downside risks to near-term R2 demand, with volumes likely heavily weighted to Q426.
Meanwhile, and unlike TSLA, we do not expect many Autonomy / AI-related potential catalysts, with key launches set for late-2026.”
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