Wolfe Downgrades Rivian to Underperform
- Rating
- Underperform
- Downgraded
- Target
- $16
- Outcome
- Reached
- on January 23, 2026
What the analyst said
Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner downgraded on January 12, 2026, Rivian from ‘Peerperform’ to ‘Underperform’ with a price target of $16.
“RIVN to UP: Risk/Reward challenging at current levels.
While the near-term and long-term fundamental setup for RIVN have deteriorated, enthusiasm around RIVN’s Autonomy platform has driven a sharp rise in the shares.
But as look to 2026, Street ests appear too high (we est EBITDA loss of $2.1 bn vs Cons of -$1.76 bn). FCF burn is likely to step-up towards ~$4+ bn, with higher Capex / Opex and WC headwinds.
And we see potential downside risks to near-term R2 demand, with volumes likely heavily weighted to Q426.
Meanwhile, and unlike TSLA, we do not expect many Autonomy / AI-related potential catalysts, with key launches set for late-2026.”
The price target and rating on this page are the opinion of the issuing research firm and its analyst, not of Price Target. This page is published for informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consider your own circumstances and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.
Where the price stands
RIVN trades at $13.61. The 11 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $10 to $23, with a median of $18. This $16 target is 11% below the median.
Since the note RIVN has moved −29% (from $19.22). 12-month window: day 299 of 365, closes on January 12, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on January 23, 2026, 11 days after the note.
Firm track recordWolfe Research: 91% of its 11 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months. Accuracy ranking →
