UBS Upgrades Rivian to Neutral With a $16 PT
UBS analyst Joseph Spak upgraded on February 13, 2026, Rivian from ‘Sell’ to ‘Neutral’ with a price target of $16 (from $15).
“We believe the near-term risk/reward is more balanced at current levels as our prior rating was in part valuation based.
Ultimately, the RIVN investment case is about the company progressing to a being a larger, and ultimately profitable, company.
We have been, and continue to be, excited about the product, the product pipeline and the brand.
We just had concerns that valuation had gotten ahead of itself. 2026 guidance itself encapsulates some of the upside potential with downside risk.
RIVN guided 2026 deliveries to 62-67k, which is better than we feared, and if they are able to execute to that, it portends a solid exit rate by which one can imagine an even stronger 2027 and beyond.
However, the flip side is we struggle to see upside to 2026 guidance, and downside seems possible as:
- guidance implies ~45k units in 2H, a strong ramp;
- it implies ~22k R2 deliveries, and while we don’t doubt initial demand, that may require near flawless production execution.
Thus, we see limited positive revisions in the near term.
Further, company is still burning cash and we don’t see positive EBITDA for a number of years.”
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