Deutsche Bank Raises Rivian’s PT to $23
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu upgraded on February 13, 2026, Rivian from ‘Hold’ to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $23 (from $16).
“Rivian stock is not for the faint of the heart and we certainly don’t expect a straight path forward but we see early signs that the company’s prospects are inflecting.
Near-term, the 2026 outlook appears de-risked, as volume expectations are reasonable and vehicle cost continues to improve, culminating in a R2 launch that appears on track for 2Q.
This should be further supported by competitors retreating or slow-walking their EV transitions and Tesla discontinuing its higher-end models.
Long term, we think efforts for a vertically integrated autonomy stack (including chip design) can help create a moat especially if VW deepens its support.
Moreover, while cash burn is still high, the balance sheet is supported by another $2bn from VW this year and the DOE loan, which provides a mid-term capital safety net for the Georgia expansion.
Overall, we think the risk-reward is attractive and upgrade the stock from Hold to Buy, taking our price target up to $23 (vs. prior $16).
Revenue in 4Q was $1,286m (vs. DBe/consensus at $1,251m/$1,260m), driven by better Software & Services sales of $447m ( vs. our $420m; including $273m from VW) and the unexpected benefit of $29m in credits.
Deliveries of 9,745 (and production of 10,974) were already reported, implying ASP down YoY and QoQ to $83.1k.
Gross profit was $120m, significantly better than our/consensus estimates of -$17m/$43m, implying a margin of 9.3% vs. our/consensus -1.4% and 3.4%, respectively.
Margin in the quarter benefitted from better profits across both segments and would have been a strong beat even excluding the impact of the credit sales.
This all lead to adjusted EBITDA losses of -$465m, beating our -$560m and consensus -$572m, with opex largely in line with our estimates.
Capex in the quarter was $463m in the quarter, significantly lower than our estimated $600m. The company exited 4Q with $6.6bn in total liquidity.”
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