Cantor Fitzgerald Raises Texas Instruments Price Target to $250

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J.

Muse raised the price target on Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) to $250.00 (from $225.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

“Given the company’s MO of managing the business with a long-term view and more recent practice of providing more color on evolving thoughts between these annual events, we are not sure that we hear all that much incremental to our thinking next week.

We expect primary investor focus to be on commentary around capex and rev/FCF scenario updates. On the capex side, mgmt. has already guided CY26 to a $2-3B range – and we expect no change there.

In CY27 and beyond, mgmt. has previously talked about maintenance capex of ~MSD % intensity, and expectations to spend at an intensity closer to 1.2x revenue growth.

Given that we believe TXN will have capacity to support ~$25B in CY26, we think the company can spend at closer to maintenance levels over the next couple years before they need to begin modularly equipping built shells.

Then on the rev/FCF per share scenarios, we are not so sure we get an update here – and not so sure that it is needed.

These figures were offered for the first time in the company’s August 2024 off-cycle update to offer thoughts on FCF scenarios if revenues returned to a “normal” trendline – and mgmt. caught a good amount of flack for how rosy these scenarios were at the time (and still are with CY26 revs tracking below the low-end of the scenario framework).

If mgmt. refrains from offering an update here, that means that FCF per share scenarios would also likely be omitted as they are anchored in revenue ranges.

Frankly though, not a big deal in our view as mgmt. likely reiterates its FCF margin target of 25-35% … and we can do the math.

As we to view FCF tracking to ~$9+ in CY27 within an incrementally improving Analog backdrop, we are adjusting our price target to $250 (vs prior $225; equating to 28x CY27 FCF per share) and maintaining Neutral rating given better upside elsewhere – with bulls more likely to craft a story of FCF upside closer to $10 in CY27 and apply a 30x multiple based on cyclical positioning, supporting upside closer to $300.”

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