HSBC Lowers Nvidia’s Price Target to $310
HSBC analyst Frank Lee lowered on February 24, 2026, the price target on Nvidia to $310 (from $320) while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.
“At its upcoming 4QFY26 financial results announcement on 25 February, we expect NVIDIA to report Q4 revenue of USD68.0bn, 5%/3% higher than management guidance and Visible Alpha (VA) consensus estimates of USD65bn/USD66bn, respectively.
As the GB300 continues to ramp into FY27e, we expect 1QFY27e revenue of USD74.0bn, 3% above VA consensus of USD71.8bn, as we expect revenue to beat expectations despite the lingering uncertainty around China exports as we do not include any China revenue in our estimates.
Over the past three months, there has been increasing debate around ASICs being a cost-effective replacement for GPUs driven by Google’s Gemini 3 LLM being trained using its in-house ASIC (TPU).
We believe that the demand for GPUs remains intact and expect GPUs to account for the bulk of hyperscalers’ capex.
During the last three months, the hyperscalers’ capex estimates for 2026e were revised up by cUSD159bn to USD679bn.
We believe this incremental capex is a result of the drastically rising memory prices and does not reflect a shift in hyperscalers’ capex from GPUs to ASICs; Street revenue estimates for major memory players has also been revised up by cUSD157bn during the last three months.
Our GPU revenue estimates are unchanged for now given no change in CoWoS capacity allocation.
With the upcoming GTC event in March, we expect the focus will be back on NVIDIA’s AI GPU roadmap with GB300 ramping and next-gen Rubin on track to ramp in 2H26.
We also remain positive about the expansion of AI GPU TAM beyond traditional hyperscalers.
Our FY27e/FY28e datacenter revenue estimates of USD351bn/USD434bn remain 12%/8% above the Street.”
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