Wolfe Research Raises Micron Price Target to $500

Wolfe Research analyst Chris Caso raised the price target on Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) to $500.00 (from $350.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“Updating our memory model to reflect higher pricing assumptions. Our model assumes a 100% y/y increase in CY26 DRAM pricing and an 95% y/y increase for NAND, with more modest y/y increases for CY27.

Due to the presence of long-term agreements, customer concentration and price declines for legacy HBM, we assume an 8% y/y increase in blended HBM pricing through CY27.

DDR5 is increasingly becoming an important driver of AI DRAM demand.

Our report analyzes both the HBM content and the DDR content for both the NVDA and Google roadmaps through CY27.

While increasing HBM content per GPU has been a core part of our memory thesis for well over a year, DDR content is an increasingly important part of demand, due to rising CPU density (to support agentic AI) as well as pricing (DDR pricing is up much more significantly than HBM).

Our analysis suggests a large number of incremental fab capacity required.

The result of this analysis is that DDR+HBM consumption for the total of Google TPU and NVDA platforms increases by ~124% in CY26 and ~143% in CY27.

Our math suggests satisfying this incremental capacity will require 6 incremental 100K WSPM DRAM fabs in CY26/27.

This underscores the point that MU made at our investor conference last month [link], that physical clean room space is likely to be a constraint on supply growth for some time.

Increasing MU estimates to $94bn rev / $44 EPS CY26; $125bn / $61 EPS CY27. Our base case assumption is in line with our memory model.

MU’s stock is now trading at 6.6x our CY27 EPS. $80-90 CY27 MU bull case. Our bull case assumes a 150% y/y increase for commodity DRAM prices in CY26, driving $160bn CY27 revenue and $80 EPS.

Our bull case pricing assumption is below Trendforce (industry memory analysts), who are forecasting a 166% increase in CY26/27 pricing.

Nonetheless, running Trendforce pricing through our MU model drives $90 CY27 EPS.”

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