Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight on XPeng, $34 Price Target
- Rating
- Overweight
- Unchanged
- Target
- $34
- Unchanged
- Upside
- +232%
- XPEV at $10.24 today
What the analyst said
Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao reiterated an Overweight rating and $34.00 price target on XPeng (NYSE: XPEV).
“XPeng targets ~20% group GPM in 1Q26 and mid- to high teens group GPM for full-year 2026: Higher share of overseas sales, Ultra take rate, and scale benefits will support full-year margins, though sequential GPM contraction in 2H26 is expected in view of higher share of vehicle revenue as deliveries of new models take off.
XPeng targets Rmb12bn R&D spending in 2026 (+26% YoY) – including Rmb7bn for AI initiatives (vs. Rmb4.5bn in 2025); SG&A ratio is expected to fall YoY.
VLA 2.0 upgrades planned quarterly: 2Q’s upgrade will significantly expand coverage in small roads and carparks.
Overseas rollout planned for year-end, with testing showing impressive early results despite limited training data.
XPeng looks for commercial robotaxi operations to begin 2H26 (with safety driver), targeting removal of safety driver by 2027.
XPeng will also consider strategic partnerships for overseas robotaxi launch in 2027.
Humanoid production targets 1k+ units/month by year-end: XPeng will initially focus on commercial scenarios, then industrial applications, before consumer expansion.
Management expects hardware BoM cost to decline with mass production, though software R&D investments will remain substantial.”
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Where the price stands
XPEV trades at $10.24. The 7 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $10 to $22, with a median of $16. This $34 target is 113% above the median, the highest on the Street.
Since the note XPEV has moved −47% (from $19.15). 12-month window: day 232 of 365, closes on March 20, 2027.
Track record
This callOpen: XPEV has not reached $34 yet. This 12-month target is scored on March 20, 2027.
Firm track recordMorgan Stanley: 82% of its 50 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#8 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Morgan Stanley on XPeng
Morgan Stanley price targets on XPeng
4 calls from September 26, 2025 to March 20, 2026. The target went from $108 to $34 (−69%). The rating stayed Buy.
- March 20, 2026 This noteKept the $34 targetBuy$34
- December 29, 2025Kept the $34 targetBuy$34
- November 11, 2025Target cut from $108 (−69%)Buy$34
- September 26, 2025Earliest call shownBuy$108
