Bernstein Raises XPeng Price Target to $22

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Eunice Lee raised the price target on XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) to $22.00 (from $21.00) while maintaining a Market Perform rating.

“Q4 delivers first profit, but core miss keeps 1H under pressure; MONA SUV launches key for 2H; Q4 first ever profit.

XPeng reported Q4 revenue of RMB 22.3bn (+38.2% yoy and +9.2% qoq) and net profit of RMB 383mn, 1.7% margin.

This quarter marks XPeng’s first positive profit, supported by strong growth in services and other revenue—particularly higher margin tech R&D services provided to Volkswagen (with gross margin estimated at c.90%), alongside parts, accessories, and carbon credit sales.

It is encouraging to see XPeng monetizing its advanced technology, with VW’s first model on its platform—the ID.UNYX 08—launching on schedule in early March.

However, we had hoped for stronger improvement in the core EV business, which still posted a 13% vehicle margin only, despite the more favorable X9 mix.

The company’s ambition to become a “global leader in physical AI agents,” while bold, may not resonate with investors when its core EV business remains under pressure.

The company is significantly ramping up AI investment, with RMB 4.5bn spent in 2025 and a planned RMB 7bn in 2026.

While we recognize XPeng’s progress on VLA 2.0 and humanoids, we think investors may not fully ascribe value to these initiatives yet, given the limited visibility on commercial timelines in the near to potentially medium term.”

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