Mizuho Lowers Super Micro Computer Price Target to $25

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the price target on Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to $25.00 (from $33.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.

“We see strong AI Server demand for 2026-27E, with NVDA 2027E DC revs tracking up >50% y/y.

We note: 1) Major CSP capex is now estimated at $689B for 2026E, up 64% y/y, with 2027E consensus estimated conservatively at $811B, up 18% y/y, we believe could have SIGNIFICANT upside given NVDA ’27 ~50%+ y/y guide and accelerating Agentic-AI (Claude/ChatGPT/OpenClaw) driving tokens, 2) SMCI continues to be AI Server technology leader with strong AI Server CAPEX tailwinds into 2027E, N-T headlines w/China could shift orders to DELL, 3) DELL N-T w/10x bigger AI Service team could see upside to ~$85B 5Q pipeline, and 4) AI Server spend overall strong at 44% CAGR(2024-29E) to ~$862B, with 2029E AI Server shipments raised to 5.67M(prior 3.67M units).

Raising DELL estimates, PT to $215 and lowering SMCI PT to $25 given some N-T challenges.”

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