UBS Raises Intel Price Target to $65
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri raised the price target on Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to $65.00 (from $51.00) while maintaining a Neutral rating.
“We see a clear upside bias for results and guidance (at least in terms of revenue) as PC demand has proven to be resilient (though we continue to expect a sharper correction in 2H26) and server CPU demand has inflected materially higher with INTC having also raised prices ~10% (we think) with a continued upward bias through the rest of this year.
We think this is especially the case in enterprise server, which we estimate to be ~60% of INTC server CPU revenue.
Whether this will be enough to drive the stock higher is a bigger question – especially following a ~38% move in the past month.
We now see FQ1 (March) revenue/EPS of ~$12.5B (versus guide midpt of $12.2B) and we are increasing C2026 Revs/EPS from ~$51B/$0.35 to ~$53B/$0.44.
We have for the better part of the past 2+yrs suggested that the foundry narrative is improving (especially on 14A) and we also said recently that we see some combination of Google/AAPL/AMD/NVDA signing a foundry commitment this Fall once the PDK 1.0 is available and in customers’ hands.
There is also now a scenario where INTC’s Ohio fab project merges with Elon Musk’s Terafab which would add even more confidence in the outlook for the foundry business – albeit over the longer-term as it would take a long time to get enough equipment to really get such a project off the ground.
Having said all of that, we do struggle with INTC’s longer-term EPS power even in a scenario where it writes a ~$25-30B check to Brookfield to eliminate this SCIP and the associated NCI.
Even under a blue-sky scenario…, it is hard to see more than ~$3-3.50/yr of EPS power through 2030.
At current stock price of ~$62 INTC is now trading at ~20x applied to C2030 bull case numbers (vs AMD’s C2027 P/E of 22x), which we think suggests upside from current level is somewhat limited.
That said, with a key foundry catalyst—the release of the 14A 1.0 PDK—still ahead, we see the stock biased higher through the remainder of the year.”
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