BofA Securities Raises Marvell Price Target to $200

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya raised the price target on Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) to $200.00 (from $125.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“Along with our AI DC TAM model above, we raise our AI networking TAM forecast across the board for CY26-30.

Specifically, we expect AI connectivity TAM to rise ~$6bn-$14bn over that time frame, with Ethernet Transceivers accounting for the majority of increase and CPOs also contributing modestly.

For CY27/28, we see Ethernet Transceivers TAM to increase ~$7bn/~$10bn, benefiting MRVL who supplies DSPs, TIAs, laser/modulator drivers inside.

We also raise CPO forecast where MRVL supplies silicon photonics PFs (photonic fabric) via Celstial AI.

MRVL’s primary optics revenue source today is the DSP, which accounts for ~20-25% of the total BOM in 800G/1.6T optical transceivers.

A ~$10bn transceiver TAM increase in CY28 would translate to ~$2bn in DSP TAM.

We estimate MRVL can maintain ~60-70% share at these generations (800G/1.6T), potentially resulting in ~$1.2bn+ of additional opportunities for MRVL DSPs.

Combined with MRVL’s positioning in TIAs (~5%+ of BOM), drivers (~5%+ of BOM), we raise MRVL’s non-CPO optics forecast for CY27/28, with a greater revision for CY28 given its increasing exposure/confidence to deliver 1.6T generation products.

Given our already previously strong MRVL optics forecast (+37%/+14% YoY in CY27/28E vs. cloud capex +25%/+10% YoY), we do not fully incorporate the TAM/share outlook revision into MRVL’s new estimates.”

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