What the analyst said
Bernstein SocGen Group analyst David Dai initiated coverage of Arm Holdings (NASDAQ: ARM) with an Outperform rating and a $300.00 price target.
“Arm is the structural beneficiary of the renaissance of CPUs for agentic AI.
Compared to Gen AI 1.0, Agentic AI involves heavily autonomous task orchestration and execution, which can only be done by CPUs.
While traditional AI data centers require ~30 million CPU cores / GW of compute, Agentic AI data centers require ~120 million CPU cores / GW — a 4x structural increase.
The ratio of GPU:CPU is shifting from the current 8:1 to 2:1 / 1:1, with server CPU TAM quadrupling to $137bn by 2030. Arm stands out in server CPUs given its unparalleled power efficiency.
In addition, Arm is shifting from just IP provider to CPU maker, aiming to capture $15bn revenue by CY2030.
We forecast Arm’s revenue to grow more than five-fold to $26 Bn by 2030, with EPS expanding similarly (~5.5x) to $9.83, supported by the growing adoption of Arm CPUs in AI data centers, its own Arm CPU revenue, and the rising royalty driven by the higher value Arm provides to clients through the rapid evolution of CPUs.
With 90x P/E on Q5-8 EPS of $3.33, we rate Arm Outperform with PT= $300.00. In the bull case, we can see Arm being valued at 40x on $9.8 2030 (FY31) EPS, implying a valuation of $390.”
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Where the price stands
ARM trades at $203. The 2 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $320 to $641, with a median of $481. This $300 target is 38% below the median, the lowest on the Street.
Since the note ARM has moved −3% (from $209). 12-month window: day 169 of 365, closes on May 18, 2027.
Track record
This call✓ Target reached on May 22, 2026, 4 days after the note.
Firm track recordBernstein: 79% of its 24 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#13 of 26 firms). Accuracy ranking →
Bernstein on Arm
Bernstein price targets on Arm
2 calls from May 18, 2026 to June 17, 2026. The target went from $300 to $500 (+67%). The rating stayed Buy.
- June 17, 2026Target raised from $300 (+67%)Buy$500
- May 18, 2026 This noteEarliest call shownBuy$300
