Macquarie Upgrades Li Auto to Neutral, $15 PT

Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao upgraded Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) from Underperform to Neutral with a price target of $15.00.

“Li Auto’s large cash position (Rmb94bn) is approaching its market cap (~Rmb113bn), supported by the recently launched US$1bn buyback program.

Management’s 2Q outlook suggests lower i6 volumes, which could improve mix despite a slower-than-anticipated L9 order intake.

Despite these headwinds, we believe 1Q26 is set to be the trough quarter, with potential for a bottoming out in Li Auto’s near-term fundamentals.

We cut our FY26E volume forecast by 12% and EPS estimate to a net loss -Rmb0.32 (from +Rmb0.63) on concerns for softer demand for new models.

We raise our target P/S multiple to 0.75x (was 0.7x) based on peer comps and a historical 1 SD below the post-COVID mean. We trim our H-share TP by 3% to HK$57 (from HK$59), but our US-share TP remains US $15 on FX”

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