JPMorgan Reiterates Neutral on Tesla, $475 PT
JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta reiterated a Neutral rating and $475.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
“Quick take: We believe the acceleration in legacy auto sales coinciding with developments in TSLA’s robotaxi should drive positive feedback loops for both segments (discussed in our recent deep-dive).
In addition, ongoing build of Cybercab production vehicles and increased testing as well as production line commencement of Optimus Gen 3 robots should provide upside impetus to shares from now through 2Q earnings on 7/22.
We remain N and our Dec 2027 price target is $475 (unchanged from prior).
Deliveries recap and other developments: TSLA delivered 480.1K vehicles in 2Q26, handily surpassing our above-consensus estimate of 420.0K, BBG consensus of 380.7K, and the company-compiled consensus of 392.6K, representing ~25% y/y growth.
The beat was driven primarily by Model 3/Y deliveries, tracking at 467.8K units, ~14% above JPMe and ~19% above company-compiled consensus, while other models tracked at 12.4K, ahead of our 10.0K forecast but modestly below company consensus.
Monthly data, including preliminary June figures, continue to highlight a strong recovery in Europe, a trend we see as still in its early innings given that the full benefit of recent FSD approvals (Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Netherlands) has yet to flow through.
TSLA’s Giga Berlin production ramp of ~20% announced last week further reinforces this demand strength, indicating that the company views demand trends as sustainable.
Vehicle production tracked at ~451.8K units, indicating a release of inventory in 2Q.
Regarding energy storage, TSLA’s deployments tracked at ~13.5 GWh, outpacing our 11.0 GWh estimate but coming in just below the company-compiled consensus of 13.8 GWh.”
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