JP Morgan Tesla · TSLA

JPMorgan Reiterates Neutral on Tesla, $475 Price Target

Analyst: Rajat Gupta 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Neutral
Unchanged
Target
$475
Unchanged
Upside
+33%
TSLA at $358 today
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What the analyst said

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta reiterated a Neutral rating and $475.00 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

“Quick take: We believe the acceleration in legacy auto sales coinciding with developments in TSLA’s robotaxi should drive positive feedback loops for both segments (discussed in our recent deep-dive).

In addition, ongoing build of Cybercab production vehicles and increased testing as well as production line commencement of Optimus Gen 3 robots should provide upside impetus to shares from now through 2Q earnings on 7/22.

We remain N and our Dec 2027 price target is $475 (unchanged from prior).

Deliveries recap and other developments: TSLA delivered 480.1K vehicles in 2Q26, handily surpassing our above-consensus estimate of 420.0K, BBG consensus of 380.7K, and the company-compiled consensus of 392.6K, representing ~25% y/y growth.

The beat was driven primarily by Model 3/Y deliveries, tracking at 467.8K units, ~14% above JPMe and ~19% above company-compiled consensus, while other models tracked at 12.4K, ahead of our 10.0K forecast but modestly below company consensus.

Monthly data, including preliminary June figures, continue to highlight a strong recovery in Europe, a trend we see as still in its early innings given that the full benefit of recent FSD approvals (Belgium, Denmark, Lithuania, Estonia, and the Netherlands) has yet to flow through.

TSLA’s Giga Berlin production ramp of ~20% announced last week further reinforces this demand strength, indicating that the company views demand trends as sustainable.

Vehicle production tracked at ~451.8K units, indicating a release of inventory in 2Q.

Regarding energy storage, TSLA’s deployments tracked at ~13.5 GWh, outpacing our 11.0 GWh estimate but coming in just below the company-compiled consensus of 13.8 GWh.”

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This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.

Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $358. The 17 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $442. This $475 target is 7% above the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved −9% (from $393). 12-month window: day 123 of 365, closes on July 6, 2027.

Track record

This callOpen: TSLA has not reached $475 yet. This 12-month target is scored on June 5, 2027. Same target as this firm’s June 5, 2026 note, so it is scored there.

Firm track recordJP Morgan: 64% of its 28 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#22 of 26 firms); on Tesla, 0 of 4. Accuracy ranking →

JP Morgan on Tesla

JP Morgan price targets on Tesla

8 calls from July 1, 2025 to September 28, 2026. The target went from $115 to $415 (+261%). The rating moved from Sell to Hold.

JP Morgan targetTSLA share price
  1. September 28, 2026Target cut from $445 (−7%)Hold$415
  2. July 23, 2026Target cut from $475 (−6%)Hold$445
  3. July 6, 2026 This noteKept the $475 targetHold$475
  4. June 5, 2026Upgraded to Hold, target raised from $145 (+228%)Hold$475
  5. May 11, 2026Kept the $145 targetSell$145
  6. April 6, 2026Target cut from $150 (−3%)Sell$145
  7. October 3, 2025Target raised from $115 (+30%)Sell$150
  8. July 1, 2025Earliest call shownSell$115
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Other analysts on Tesla

CantorBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 26 $485maintained BarclaysBuy Upgraded, raised price target +22% Oct 26 $450from $370 StoneXBuy Kept rating and price target Oct 22 $475maintained BNP ParibasHold Upgraded Oct 22 Morgan StanleyHold Raised price target +2%, kept rating Oct 22 $410from $400
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.