Stifel Initiates SpaceX at Buy, $190 PT
Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann initiates coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) with a Buy rating and a price target of $190.
“We initiate coverage with a $190 target price, anchored on a sum-of-the-parts of 2029E segment EBITDA.
Our thesis rests on three pillars — a launch-cost moat, a connectivity earnings engine, and AI optionality — with valuation weighted to Space/Connectivity (54% of EV) and AI (46%).
Key points: Scaled launch infrastructure is the moat.
Routine Falcon 9 booster reuse has driven launch cost to roughly $3,000/kg — an advantage no competitor has matched, and SpaceX already accounts for ~90% of all mass to orbit.
Vertical integration is the enabler: SpaceX builds ~70 80% of its vehicles in-house, including engines, while rivals rely on brought-in propulsion, sprawling supplier networks, or cost-plus contracting.
Starship widens the gap — full reusability and scale target a ~99% cost reduction to LEO, with ~7x more frequent launches and ~7x more payload per launch driving ~50x total mass to orbit.
Starlink is the earnings engine, still early in penetration. Early niches are becoming deep markets, and SpaceX already operates the largest constellation in any orbit.
Starlink holds only ~0.6% of an $870B global broadband TAM and ~0.1% of a $740B direct-to-cell TAM.
Next-gen V3 satellites carry more than 10x the downlink capacity of the current generation, and shrinking performance gaps to terrestrial alternatives give Starlink a long runway across broadband, enterprise, government, and direct-to-cell.
AI is the swing variable — compute infrastructure the floor, owned intelligence the upside. The AI infrastructure TAM is the single largest at $2,400B, where SpaceX holds under 2% today.
SpaceX is already demonstrating momentum in terrestrial data centers — scaling toward ~1.4 GW of capacity anchored by Anthropic/Google leasing deals.
The more significant prize is migrating AI’s buildout into orbit, where SpaceX’s stated goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of compute to space each year.”
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