Cantor Fitzgerald Reiterates Neutral on Rivian, $19 Price Target
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Neutral rating and $19 price target on Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN).
“Our Thoughts – Cantor’s Take: RIVN reported 2Q26 revenue beat of $1,658M (including Automotive revenue of $1,143M and Software revenue of $515M), vs. our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of ~$1,592M/~$1,537M (and vs. $1,303M in 2Q25), driven primarily by ~$108M in regulatory credits and 12,194 vehicle deliveries. On the call, management reaffirmed its FY26 delivery outlook of 65,000-70,000 vehicles (previously increased from 62,000-67,000 vehicles), which includes EDV deliveries.
Additionally, RIVN lowered its FY26 Capex guidance to $1.70B-$1.80B (from prior $1.95B-$2.05B), and reported total (pro forma) liquidity of ~$7.2B (which includes net proceeds from the recent capital raise).
Separately, on its Q2 earnings call, RIVN affirmed that Amazon now has >40,000 EDVs in operation.
Recall that the partnership includes deliveries of up to 100,000 EDVs, and in our estimates we model 80,704 total EDV deliveries as we want to remain conservative.
For Q3, we model ~18,228 total deliveries, and in our estimates, we continue to expect R1 and EDV annual volumes combined to be relatively flat with last year, with R2 volumes accounting for the delta.
On the call, management disclosed that initial conversion rate from reservations for its R2 Performance vehicle (highest priced trim) had been “meaningfully higher” than expectations, and included “a significant number of first-time EV owners,” which we find encouraging.
We continue to expect R2 deliveries to materially boost customer demand (driven by the more competitive price point and the recently unveiled autonomy features), and we view Rivian’s AI and customer-focused autonomous approach as a way for the company to: materially improve the unit economics and likely capture meaningful autonomy and EV market share (over several years).
Overall, we continue to believe that RIVN benefits from a differentiated product offering (R1, EV charging, EDVs, & R2), a commercial partnership with Amazon, and a strategic joint venture with Volkswagen.
However, we remain Neutral in the near term, as we await a better entry point and granularity on the company’s monetization plans for autonomy. Our Neutral rating and 12-month $19 PT are unchanged.
Rivian’s Near-Term (Potential) Catalysts: Q3 Pre-Announcement (10/26); RAP1 Chip Launch (we expect 2H26E); Autonomy Point-to-Point Initial Launch (we expect 2H26E); R2 Premium Trim Launch (we expect 2H26E); Rivian Assistant Launch on R2 (we expect 2H26E); R2 Standard Trim Launch (we expect 1H27E); Autonomy Eyes-Off Launch (we expect 2027E); and Autonomy L4 Robotaxi Launch (we expect 2028E).
FY26 Outlook: Management reaffirmed its FY26 vehicle delivery guidance of 65,000-70,000 vehicles (previously increased on 7/2 from 62,000-67,000 vehicles), which includes EDV deliveries.
Recall that in FY25, Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles and produced 42,284. In Q2, RIVN updated its FY26 Adj.
EBITDA guidance to ($2.0B)-($1.8B), vs. prior ($2.1B)-($1.8B), and the company lowered its FY26 Capex guidance to $1.70B-$1.80B (from prior $1.95B-2.05B). for FY26, we model 67,511 total deliveries (includes EDVs).
R2 Launched, and above Initial Management Expectations.
Rivian previously announced that deliveries, order invitations, and demo drives for its R2 have begun, with vehicles rolling off the production line at its manufacturing facility in Normal, Illinois.
Rivian is first launching deliveries of its R2 Performance with Launch Package (at a starting price of $57,990), with plans to launch its Premium trim ($53,990) in late 2026 and a Standard trim ($48,490) in early 2027.
In our opinion, Rivian’s R2 deliveries are the most material catalyst for the company.
On the call, management disclosed that initial conversion rate from reservations for its R2 Performance vehicle (highest-priced trim) had been “meaningfully higher” than expectations, and included “a significant number of first-time EV owners,” which we find encouraging.
Management is targeting positive gross profit margin (on a per-unit basis) for R2 by the end of FY26.
Ramping Up Autonomy.
At its Autonomy & AI Day, RIVN announced that its fully autonomous system will be equipped with 11 cameras, 5 radars, and 1 LiDAR, and that it will be offered to customers via a one-time fee of $2,500 or for $49.99 monthly subscription.
More importantly, on its Q2 call, RIVN disclosed it now expects to release point-to-point autonomy (by the end of this year), “Eyes-off” autonomous capability (in 2027), and ultimately L4 autonomous robotaxi capabilities (in 2028).
Additionally, RIVN also announced that its RAP1 chip is in final testing, and management reaffirmed that it remains on track for launch by the end of year.
Overall, we are encouraged by Rivian’s plans to ramp up its autonomy capabilities, and we expect it will materially improve the unit economics and, over time, capture meaningful market share in the AV and EV sector.
Key Financial Metrics: Top-Line Beat.
RIVN reported 2Q26 revenue of $1,658M, above our estimate/Visible Alpha consensus of ~$1,592M/~$1,537M (and vs. $1,303M in 2Q25), driven primarily by 12,194 vehicle deliveries in 2Q26 (and 12,613 vehicles produced).
Total Automotive revenue contributed $1,143M (vs. $927M in 2Q25), and total Software revenue was $515M (vs. $376M in 2Q25).
Gross Margin Beat: RIVN reported a 2Q26 gross profit of $179M, above VA consensus of $63.9M, and 2Q26 GAAP Gross Margin of ~10.8%.
However, Q2 gross margin ex regulatory credits was ~4.6% vs. VA consensus of ~4.2%.
Separately, RIVN reported a 2Q26 Adj. EBITDA of ($379M), vs. VA consensus of (~$557M), (and vs. a loss of ($667M) in 2Q25).
Bottom-Line: Rivian reported a 2Q26 Net Loss of ($837M), above VA consensus of ($985.7M). RIVN also reported a 2Q26 adj. EPS of ($0.47) VA consensus of ($0.62) (and vs. ($0.80) in 2Q25).
Liquidity Update: Net cash from operating activities in 2Q26 was ~($487M) vs. $64M in 2Q25; 2Q26 Capex of $362M vs. VA consensus of $511M (and vs. $462M in 2Q25).
FCF in 2Q26 was ($849M), in line with our estimate of ~($852M), and vs. VA consensus of ~($1,098M). RIVN reported ~$5.3B in cash, equivalents, and ST investments for 2Q26 (vs. ~$4.8B in 1Q26).
Including the company’s asset-based revolving credit facility and including the company’s July follow-on equity offering net-proceeds of ~$1.3B, RIVN reported a total pro-forma liquidity of ~$7.2B.
Additionally, RIVN expects to receive $1.25B in 2026 (consisting of a $1.0B Volkswagen loan and a $250M Uber equity investment), which brings the company’s 2026 targeted liquidity to ~$8.4B.
Management later also expects to receive up to $4.5B under its DOE loan (by 2Q27), up to $700M in additional Uber investments (through 2031, subject to milestones), and a $460M Volkswagen investment (by 2028), bringing total targeted capital to ~$14.1B.
Robotaxi Partnership with Uber: RIVN recently announced a partnership with Uber to deploy up to 50,000 fully autonomous Robotaxis exclusively on the Uber platform.
As part of this agreement, Uber is expected to purchase 10,000 autonomous R2 vehicles initially, with an option to purchase up to 40,000 additional vehicles in 2030.
Rivian’s management is targeting initial commercial deployments to begin in 2028 in San Francisco and Miami, with later plans to scale up to 25 cities by 2031.
Additionally, as part of this agreement, Uber will invest up to $1.25B in Rivian (through 2031), contingent on the achievement of specified autonomy milestones.
Georgia Facility and DOE Loan. RIVN is partnering with the DOE to increase its manufacturing capacity in Georgia to 300,000 (vs. prior 200,000).
Additionally, RIVN expects the (up to) $4.5B DOE Loan to provide low-cost financing for the buildout of its Georgia Plan.
RIVN expects to draw on the loan in early-2027, and the company is targeting initial production in Georgia to begin in late-2028.
Volkswagen Joint Venture. RIVN’s $5.8B joint venture with Volkswagen will be split into six components.
For the rest of FY26, management expects to receive a $1B loan in October, followed by ~$460M of equity (expected either in Jan 2028 or on first production of a joint vehicle).
Valuation: Our Neutral Rating and Our 12-Month PT of $19 on RIVN is Unchanged. In our model, we decrease our FY26 capex to $1,750M (from prior $2,005M) to reflect management’s updated guidance.
We also increase our FY26 opex to $4,302M (from prior $4,222M). We arrive at our $19 PT via a bottom-up, 10-year DCF.
Key risks include: Mmanufacturing constraints, highly competitive market, slower-than-expected customer adoption, and continued supply-chain disruptions.”
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