Raymond James Reiterates Strong Buy on SpaceX, $800 Price Target

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale reiterated a Strong Buy rating and $800 price target on SpaceX (SPCX) on August 5, 2026.

“SPCX handily exceeded 2Q expectations, de-risked the commercialization of Starship with Flight 13, and saw a material inflection in its AI business across several fronts.

Revenue of $7.8B (+92% y/y) beat by ~$1B reporting positive variance in each of the modeled segments. AEBITDA of $3.5B surpassed our $1.99 B estimate generating a 44.9% margin (+1,560 bp y/y).

Backlog expanded to a record $47.5B – while the company is on track for $100B of ARR by year-end.

The stock traded down after-hours (down ~7.5%) reflecting the market friction we highlighted in No Consensus – Not an Anomaly – and the pending lockup release of 20% of shares beginning Thursday.

While trading has dislocated from fundamentals over the course of the last few weeks, we continue to have conviction in our thesis and see our forecasts as biased significantly higher in the near and long term – management advanced its internal $1T revenue framework by one year—from 2031 to 2030—reflecting accelerating AI demand.

That forecast is now 2x the revenue we are forecasting leaving considerable optionality for upside with execution.

Operationally, compute capacity reached 1.4GW (+40% q/q), $6.7B incremental signings in early-3Q, better visibility to 2GW+ by year-end, a strong Heat Shield update, and continued progress across Mobile, AI, and orbital infrastructure.

We reiterate our Strong Buy rating and 12-month $800 price target.”

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