Barclays Lowers XPeng Price Target to $14

Barclays analyst Jiong Shao lowered the price target on XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) to $14 (from $15) while maintaining an Underweight rating.

“XPEV delivered an in line Q with better-than-expected margins and bottom line, but the guide for flat-to-LSD % yoy unit delivery growth in 3Q26 disappointed the market.

Our prior estimate was looking for an average ~53k unit deliveries per month for Aug and Sep, and ~145k for the Q with 25% yoy growth, driven by the release and delivery of L03.

Although market demand for L03 has proven to be very robust (46.9k non-refundable orders within one hour of launch for L03 vs.

10k for M03 at the time), supply chain disruptions have seriously impacted XPEV’s ability to deliver on these orders.

Although management has shared that two-shift production has recently begun for L03 and deliveries will increase substantially, touching ~60k per month in 4Q26, XPEV’s annual delivery growth will likely land in the range of MSD% yoy, a meaningful deceleration from ~126% yoy in FY25.

Much of today’s earnings call were on XPEV’s robotic business. The company announced the first external financing of its robotics business with $900mn capital committed.

And management shared the timetable for introducing and delivering its IRON robots (production by the year-end, deployment in XPEV stores in 1H27, followed by sales to outside customers), which is consistent with what it had communicated in the past.

Opportunities within the space are significant as ASP and margins of IRON robots should be meaningfully higher compared to XPEV’s current vehicles; however, before the first batches of IRONs leave production line and are displayed for customers to interact with in stores and demonstrate their capabilities, it is hard to include them in our current financial build for FY27.

And the stock will continue to be dictated by vehicle deliveries until IRON sales reach a material amount, likely after they begin to be sold to external customers.”

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