Goldman Sachs Lowers NIO Price Target to $6.10
Goldman Sachs analyst Tina Hou lowered the price target on NIO (NYSE: NIO) to $6.10 (from $7.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.
“We cut our estimates and target price for Nio post its 2Q26 result which was broadly in line (First Take).
However, 3Q26 volume/revenue guidance was below expectation, with vehicle sales volume guidance -12%/-11% vs. GSe /VA Consensus and revenue guidance -8%/-7% vs.
GSe /Consensus at the midpoint, mainly due to ongoing weak domestic market demand as well as relatively lower recognition of its Onvo brand.
That being said, we still expect sequential improvement on volume and operating profit into 3Q/4Q, with competitive new and facelift product launches into 2027 as the company solidifies its premium Nio brand positioning and continues to build the Onvo brand, as well as generating positive free cash flow.
We maintain our Buy rating. Looking ahead into 2H26E, we expect volume/revenue growth of 9%/22% yoy, with a 13% yoy increase in blended ASP, reflecting the success of Nio’s premium brand power.
With gross margin stabilized at 18%-19% and ongoing operating leverage, we expect non-GAAP operating margin to increase to 1.6% in 2H26E (vs. 1.1% in 1H26).
For full year 2026E, we model (1) Revenue growth of 44% driven by 29% volume growth and 14% ASP increase; (2) Gross margin to improve to 18.6% in 2026E (from 13.6% in 2025) with better model mix and economies of scale; (3) non-GAAP operating profit to turn positive to Rmb1.8bn in 2026E (vs. -Rmb11bn in 2025); (4) Free cash flow to turn positive to Rmb7.1bn in 2026E (vs. -Rmb3.1bn in 2025).
Estimate changes: Post result, we factor in lower volume and revenue from 3Q26 guidance, and lower our 2026E-28E non-GAAP net profit estimates from Rmb1.6bn~Rmb5.3bn to Rmb0.6bn~3.6bn.
Our 12-month DCF-based target prices come down to US$6.1/HK$48 (from previously US$7.0/HK$55), implying 58%/63% upside. Maintain Buy.”
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