William Blair Affirms Market Perform on Tesla
William Blair analyst Jed Dorsheimer reiterated a Market Perform rating on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
“Deliveries Beat.
Third-quarter total deliveries of 486,532 beat expectations by 5%. Model 3/Y led the way as Model S/X sunset and Cybertruck remains at low volumes. Energy Storage Flat and Misses.
Energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh were essentially flat versus last quarter and missed consensus by 14%.
The pace of growth for Tesla’s energy storage business has softened, but our view of the demand environment has not changed, so we attribute the pace to supply constraints hampering the production ramp-up.
Tesla’s Megapack earned entry into Nvdia’s DSX Ready program, qualifying it as a key infrastructure component for AI data centers.
We’ll continue to monitor for root cause, but we expect growth in GWh deployments to accelerate into the second half. Valuation and Risks.
Shares trade at an enterprise value of 86x our 2027 EBITDA estimate, a significant premium to technology peers at 18x.
Risks include 1) competition, particularly from Chinese EV and energy storage players; 2) geopolitical risk, with large exposure to customers in China; and 3) key-man risk with CEO Elon Musk.”
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