Bank of America Tesla · TSLA

BofA Securities Downgrades Tesla to Neutral, $490 Price Target

January 7, 2025 Analyst: John Murphy 1 min read Reproduced verbatim
Rating
Hold
from Buy
Target
$490
from $400 (+23%)
Outcome
Missed
within 12 months
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What the analyst said

BofA Securities analyst John Murphy downgraded Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) from Buy to Neutral with a price target of $490 (from $400).

“We downgrade TSLA from Buy to Neutral. Since our upgrade in April 2024, news flow and investor sentiment have shifted more positively.

Catalysts around future growth drivers have been more fully recognized (most notably for Robotaxi). Our latest valuation analysis (detailed on pages 3-15) drives our PO to $490 PO (was $400).

While this still implies upside, execution risk is high and TSLA is trading at a level that captures much of our base case LT potential from core autos, robotaxi, Optimus, and energy generation & storage.

We move to Neutral. In this report, we also update estimates to reflect our latest analysis of TSLA’s different businesses. There are catalysts ahead, which could support the stock.

However, execution risk is high, supporting our Neutral rating.

These include: 1) Introduction of a low cost model in 1H:25 and another new model in 2H:25 (key drivers of volume growth); 2) Launch of robotaxi in mid-2025; 3) Megapack production ramp at Shanghai assembly plant starting in 1Q:25; 4) Updates on FSD subscribers; 5) Start of broader production of Optimus, with target of 1,000 units by end of 2025; 6) Risk of new policy being less favorable for TSLA than expected; 7) A capital raise – positive as it would help accelerate growth.”

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Where the price stands

TSLA trades at $383. The 22 analysts who set a target in the last 3 months range from $24.86 to $500, with a median of $418. This $490 target is 17% above the median.

Since the note TSLA has moved −7% (from $411). The 12-month window closed on January 7, 2026.

Track record

This call✗ Not reached within 12 months: a year after the note TSLA closed at $431, 12% below the $490 target, but it moved the way the analyst expected.

Firm track recordBank of America: 81% of its 21 targets at least a year old were reached within 12 months (#14 of 20 firms); on Tesla, 2 of 3. Accuracy ranking →

Bank of America on Tesla

Bank of America price targets on Tesla

7 calls from January 7, 2025 to July 23, 2026. The target went from $490 to $460 (−6%). The rating moved from Hold to Buy.

Bank of America targetTSLA share price
  1. July 23, 2026Kept the $460 targetBuy$460
  2. April 21, 2026Kept the $460 targetBuy$460
  3. March 4, 2026Upgraded to Buy, target cut from $471 (−2%)Buy$460
  4. October 29, 2025Target raised from $305 (+54%)Hold$471
  5. April 23, 2025Target cut from $380 (−20%)Hold$305
  6. March 4, 2025Target cut from $490 (−22%)Hold$380
  7. January 7, 2025 This noteEarliest call shownHold$490
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Other analysts on Tesla

Yorkville IvesBuy Initiated coverage · Oct 7 $500 UBSHold Raised price target +2%, kept rating · Oct 7 $391from $385 Goldman SachsHold Kept rating and price target · Oct 6 $360maintained UBSHold Kept rating and price target · Oct 5 $385maintained TruistHold Kept rating and price target · Oct 5 $370maintained
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Price Target is an archive of Wall Street analyst research, published for informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Analyst ratings and price targets are the opinions of the issuing firms, not of Price Target. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser.