Evercore ISI Lowers Tesla Price Target to $235

Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $235 (from $270) while maintaining an In Line rating.

“TSLA’s Q1 Weakness Extension – as TSLA has now broken its 200d mvg avg ($282), investors are asking “what’s next?” as the Mag 7 and broader market continue to move lower on POTUS’s grand plan uncertainty.

Q1 EPS tracking low 40s based on 13-14% GM and 350-375k deliveries.

EvrISI Take – we lower our PT to $235 (3x Rev + 50% Call Option probability) from $270 as we move FY25 deliveries to 1.75MM from 1.875MM with clear risk to 1.7MM (EPS ’25/26 now 22/29% below cons).

3 main negatives: 1) Brand/volume destruction in all 3 regions; 2) Increasing view that the “new variant” is just a $5k cheaper, de-contented Y; 3) Risk rising to the “AV call option” as no one seems to be discussing that the FSD Tracker basically has seen little improvement despite full v13 rollout (i.e., company talking point goalposts will soon move to “v14/15” “exponential gains,” which means “delay”).

TSLA bounced off $220 technical level, which is an important next (or last) line of defense.”

This research note is reproduced verbatim from the issuing firm. Price Target never edits, paraphrases or alters analysts’ words — we only republish them in one place.