Guggenheim Lowers Tesla Price Target to $170

Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $170 (from $175) while maintaining a Sell rating.

“We are updating our TSLA delivery and margin forecasts to incorporate QTD data.

Our key takeaways: 1) 1Q25 Delivery forecast: We now see 1Q deliveries of 358K, down from 405K prior and well below current consensus of 420K.

The range of outcomes for March remains difficult to forecast because much of the upside/downside hinges on Model Y refresh production and willingness to discount older generation Model Ys.

2) Margin assumptions: Our updated build for 1Q auto gross margins ex-credits is 12.0% vs. 13.6% consensus. Detailed pricing tracker available upon request.

Our estimates include ~210bps of FSD benefits from both the Launch Edition Model Y and deferred revenue recognition associated with the initial FSD rollout in China, though we would note the math for both assumptions is admittedly “napkin math”.

3) Early Reads on Refresh Model Y Demand Modestly Negative: We are only dealing with small anecdotes at this point, but wait times in China and the persistence of old Model Y inventory are both negative demand indicators.

4) Political noise: We note the rising frequency of TeslaTakeover Protests in the US and Europe. Though we would note Republicans buy EVs too, at almost the same rate as Democrats (NORC/AP).

The Setup: Headlines likely get worse before they get better, with a negative 1Q delivery print, 1Q gross margin downside (though we could end above buyside all said and done), new model launches that are less accretive to the TAM vs. bullish expectations, and a June Robotaxi launch that could be underwhelming in terms of scope (particularly as Waymo scales).

With that context, TSLA stock has been momentum up, and momentum down… and we expect the near-term trend to remain negative.

While we appreciate excitement around robotaxis, we believe the stock is reaching a breaking point, where numbers start to matter – based on our current model TSLA has little room left to reduce price before FCF flips negative.

We are lowering our PT to $170 from $175 on lower estimates.”

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