CFRA Lowers Tesla Price Target to $360

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $360 (from $385) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“We lower our 12-month target by $25 to $360, based on a 2026 P/E of 100x, justified by long-term growth expectations.

We lower our EPS estimates to $2.45 from $2.50 for 2025 and to $3.60 from $3.85 for 2026 on lower auto sales volume expectations.

This morning, TSLA reported Q1 deliveries of 336,681 vehicles, short of the 377,000 consensus and our estimate of 360,000. The total represents a 13.0% decline from the 386,810 units sold in Q1 2024.

Auto volumes were negatively impacted by the changeover of Model Y lines across all four factories, leading to several weeks of lost production.

On the positive side, TSLA’s higher-margin energy storage segment posted its second strongest quarter ever for deployments, up over 150% Y/Y to 10.4 GWh.

While TSLA’s Q1 deliveries were disappointing, shares are taking the release in stride (-1%) and we continue to expect a strong sequential rebound in auto volumes starting this quarter.

We also view TSLA’s lesser exposure to tariffs is an underappreciated aspect of the story.”

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