Mizuho Lowers Tesla Price Target to $325

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered the price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) to $325 (from $375) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

“As largely expected, TSLA reported below-Street 1Q25 Rev/EPS of $19.3B/$0.27 (vs. consensus of $21.4B/$0.44).

Auto GMs ex-ZEV credits tracked in-line to slightly better at ~12.7% vs. cons. of ~12.3%, despite ASPs coming in down ~9.7% y/y in 1Q25.

TSLA withdrew its outlook for ’25E deliveries (prior: “returning to growth”) after 1Q25 deliveries tracked down ~13% y/y, and we now estimate full-year ’25E tracking down 8% y/y following 1Q25’s ~7-week or ~13% annualized production downtime for Model Y retooling, but production expected to improve through C25E.

Maintain Outperform, lowering estimates and PT to $325 (prior: $375), as we see TSLA remaining the US EV leader, offsetting some share loss in China as it launches a low-cost EV model in June.”

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