Deutsche Bank Lowers Tesla Q2 Deliveries Est., Keeps Buy Rating
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu reiterated on June 30, 2025, a ‘Buy’ rating and $345 price target on Tesla, ahead of the Q2 deliveries update.
“We expect Tesla’s 2Q25 deliveries to miss sell-side consensus expectations but this shouldn’t come as a surprise as buyside expectations are already materially lower at the moment.
Specifically, we estimate 355k deliveries (down from prior 385k), below consensus +380k, representing a nearly 20% decline YoY albeit up >5% sequentially.
By geo, the largest declines could once again be coming from Europe where we believe the brand has been damaged the most and competition is intensifying.
In N. America, volume seems to have generally been in line (we estimate +10% QoQ helped by Model Y Juniper ramp up) with focus being on the Robotaxi launch in Austin.
In China, we expect deliveries to decline about 9% YoY or flattish QoQ. QTD through third week of June, we estimate that Tesla has already registered 109k units in the country (out of 136k total for the quarter).
Looking to the full year, we believe consensus estimates would need to come down further closer to 1.6m or below (>10% decline YoY), and we anticipate management will officially address this during the upcoming 2Q earnings call.
While we had anticipated a Model Q unveil/launch occurring in late June, this clearly appears to be delayed and Tesla’s volume may only benefit from this in 4Q.”
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