GLJ Research Reiterates Tesla’s ‘Sell’ Rating and $24.86 Price Target

GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a Sell rating and a price target of $24.86 on Tesla.

“With roughly three weeks of the quarter still to run, our model points to 2Q26E global deliveries of 426,017 units — up 19.0% sequentially from 1Q26’s 358,023 and up 10.9% against the 384,122 Tesla delivered in 2Q25.

That places us roughly 29,000 units (7.3%) above the company-compiled Bloomberg Street consensus of 396,991 (which will no doubt be revised higher as we move closer to quarter-end), and about 10,000 units below where Kalshi’s prediction market is trading (~436K, ticking toward 443K).In short, we are above the sell-side and below the crowd (i.e., Kalshi).

Isn’t this a good thing? No; this is not evidence that demand has re-accelerated.

1Q26 paired a 4% delivery miss with a 50,363-unit sequential inventory build — cumulative unsold inventory surged to a record ~165K units, or 41.5 days of supply.

A sequentially stronger 2Q is the arithmetic consequence of clearing that overhang into a seasonally stronger quarter, on top of unusually soft year-ago comps in Europe and China, and of Tesla pushing export volume into Korea and Australia to support the headline.

The operative questions are at what price and at what gross margin those units clear. Reiterate SELL.”

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