GLJ Research Reiterates Sell Rating and $24.86 PT on Tesla
GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated a Sell rating and $24.86 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
“We reiterate our Sell rating and $24.86 12-month price target on Tesla (TSLA).
Our final Q1 2026 delivery model — incorporating GLJ’s proprietary VIN-based US production channel check, CPCA/CNEVPost China production and delivery data, European country-level registration tracking through February 2026, South Korea KAIDA registration data and shipping intelligence, Australian VFACTS/EVC data, Turkey ODMD data, and US Motor Intelligence monthly sales figures — yields an estimate of 368,478 total deliveries for Q1’26.
This is +0.8% above the Wall Street consensus of 365,645 (Tesla IR company-compiled, 23 analysts, published March 26, 2026) and +5.7% above our own March 13 prior estimate of 348,714.
Despite delivering above consensus volumes, we maintain our SELL rating: Tesla’s automotive earnings trajectory — a -25.9% decline vs. the Q3 2025 delivery peak of 497,099 units — cannot support a ~302x trailing P/E, and the volume uplift is disproportionately driven by: (a) a margin-dilutive subsidy arbitrage in Korea rather than organic demand recovery, and (b) a depressed Q1 2025A base of 336,681 units, which was severely impaired by the multi-factory Model Y Juniper changeover.”
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