BofA Securities Raises NVIDIA Price Target to $220

BofA Securities analyst Vivek Arya raised the price target on NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) to $220 (from $180) while maintaining a Buy rating.

“We leave our est. unchanged but raise PO to reflect incremental sales/EPS in a scenario analysis.

We assume a quarterly range of China shipments (H20, Blackwell equivalent) based on an annual run-rate that was likely 1H heavy, and in some cases reflects risk of license timing and/or Chinese customers finding alternatives.

So in case of NVDA we assume 2H’CY25 quarterly (H20) run-rate of $4-$6bn/q, which we expect to remain flat YoY in CY26E given continued restrictions of more performant products (such as Blackwell/Rubin) and increased local competition.

Our assumptions imply China accounts for 14% of global AI accelerator TAM in CY25, reducing to 12% by CY26E, and likely closer to 5-10% over time consistent with Jensen’s view of $50bn China TAM over the next 2-3 years, and AMD CEO comments that over time China could contribute only modestly to the $500bn+ in CY28 global TAM.

Based on incremental sales and 53% net margin we estimate a 5%/7% pf-EPS accretion for FY26/27E (CY25/26E).

For 2H’CY25E, NVDA could also utilize some of its prior written-off material for H20, boosting GM incremental to our assumption.

We raise our PO to $220 PO based on 37x current $5.87 FY27/CY26E EPS (was 30x), though still within 25x-56x historical range.”

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