Barclays Maintains Equalweight on Tesla, $275 Price Target

Barclays analyst Dan Levy reiterated an Equalweight rating and $275 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).

“for the stock to outperform. On the one hand, Tesla faces questions on increasingly weaker fundamentals.

While we expect 2Q auto margin ex credits to be improved q/q, it will likely remain depressed vs prior years.

And amid a soft 1H on 2025 volume, Tesla now is on track for a meaningful volume decline in 2025 (we forecast down 10%).

The fundamental set-up is a sharp contrast to the elevated hopes from late 2024: whereas ’25 consensus EPS was over $3.20 into the beginning of the year, it is now down to $1.84.

It’s certainly possible that a weak gross margin or broader soft commentary on fundamentals could be a splash of cold water on the stock.

Yet at the same time, the earnings call also presents an opportunity for Tesla’s robotaxi/AV narrative to shine, which has been front and center of Tesla stock’s strength.

We could see Elon Musk potentially discussing fleet growth targets or expansion plans.

Lastly, Tesla’s forthcoming low-cost model seemingly missed its target for 1H25 start-ofproduction.

With Tesla likely to focus on a 3Q pre-buy in advance of the Sep 30 expiration of the US EV tax credit, we believe it may delay the launch of the low-cost model to 4Q, which could be perceived negatively.”

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