William Blair Keeps ‘Market Perform’ Rating on Palantir
William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma reiterated a ‘Market Perform’ rating on Palantir.
“This afternoon, the U.S. Army announced that it awarded the Anduril-Palantir team a $100 million/11-month contract to develop the next phase of the Army’s Next-Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform prototype.
On April 11, we discussed how we viewed the Palantir-Anduril team as the heavy favorite to lead this program (A Big NGC2 Win Seems Fait Accompli).
Both vendors already provide key software such as the Maven Smart System and the Edge Data Mesh that will likely be incorporated into NGC2.
This is a major win for both Anduril and Palantir as NCG2 is one of the highest-priority U.S. Army projects.
The Department of Defense requested $3 billion in fiscal 2026 budget funding for NGC2 development. This $100 million/11-month will likely grow significantly over time.
We updated our Dotted Line contract tracker for this significant win.
Based on our tracker, Palantir was awarded $135 million in ARR across 9 different government contracts for the second quarter, a major increase from $27 million in ARR in last year’s second quarter.
This NGC2 will be part of third-quarter bookings.
We estimate that $30 million of the total contract value will be for Palantir.
Over the next three years, it will likely increase to greater than $150 million in ARR, using Palantir’s Maven Smart System and Special Operations Command Mission Command System/Common Operating Picture programs as benchmarks.
Anduril has established itself as a defense tech powerhouse. According to our tracker, Anduril has secured at least 64 contracts across its array of products that include its Fury unmanned fighter jet, Altius loitering missile system, Ghost-X reconnaissance drone, Anvil drone interceptor, Barracuda cruise missile, DIVE-LD underwater vehicle, Lattice edge battlefield software, and solid rocket motor systems.”
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